After the hottest Festival, the pressure of supply

After the Spring Festival, the pressure of supply and demand in the glass market may be difficult to resolve quickly

after another long Spring Festival holiday, what changes have taken place in the fundamentals of glass? As a continuous production industry, it is obvious that the inventory of inventory production enterprises has increased significantly. According to statistics, the inventory of float glass production enterprises nationwide in the first week after the Spring Festival was 34.82 million heavy boxes, an increase of 1.01 million heavy boxes compared with that before the festival, close to the inventory growth of the whole January. In the same period last year, the inventory increased by 1.08 million heavy containers, slightly exceeding the increase this year. However, in absolute terms, the glass inventory after the Spring Festival this year exceeded the level of the same period last year

from the past experience, since the downstream processing enterprises and construction sites often cannot resume construction quickly in the short term after the Spring Festival, but a gradual process of improvement, and from the downward trend of the domestic real economy in the past two years, the recovery of terminal demand will be more difficult. Therefore, the pressure of supply and demand in the glass market after the holiday may be difficult to resolve quickly, and there is still a certain room for enterprise inventory to rise, which is not conducive to the rebound of future glass prices

the main reasons for the recent strength of glass:

(1) market recovery expectations after the Spring Festival

the first quarter is the traditional off-season of glass consumption, especially during the Spring Festival, the terminal demand fell significantly, leading to the continuous decline of glass prices, "Meador explained Doug. However, after the Spring Festival, with the resumption of construction in the downstream industry, the demand of traders and deep-processing enterprises will gradually increase, which will promote the recovery of the glass market

(2) supply side reform improves market sentiment

since the supply side reform was launched last year, the call for overcapacity reduction and structural adjustment in excess industries has become increasingly louder, and various regulatory policies have followed, especially for serious excess industries such as coal and steel. As one of the traditional building materials industries, the market believes that glass will also take advantage of the supply side reform, and the expectation of supply side policy contraction is strong, which will change the current supply and demand pattern and price trend

(3) capital speculation

as the promoter of the short-term market, the influence of capital factors on the recent trend of glass may be more obvious. After the Spring Festival, the glass market delivered a little more low-grade powder resources of FMG in the current port spot, and the investment recovery was slow, but yesterday, the trading volume of the main contract quickly expanded to 270000 hands, a new high in the past three weeks. At the same time, more than 50000 positions were increased in a single day, an increase of 27. 16%, and the long position increase on the main seat is obviously more positive. Under the condition that the overall plate is weak and volatile, the market funds are hot for glass. The nylon screen hanging below will constitute a huge floating dustpan, which exceeds our expectations and pushes the glass price to a new high in this round of rebound

global glass () Department